A noir financial city built between two volcanoes. Below the streets run the pipes — sovereign curves, swap spreads, repo lines. The city above doesn't believe in the city below. That's the whole drama.
The western volcano. When the US 10-year breaks higher, it smokes. When it breaks 5%, lava starts flowing. Currently at 4.60% — venting.
The eastern volcano. Quieter than its twin for decades. Now smoking at 2.70% — a decade high. The valley feels it.
The valley between the volcanoes. Bond desks, FX dealers, swap counterparties. Bright at night. Hollow at dawn. Everything that matters happens here.
Where the Yen Dragon rests on a pile of carried yen. Wake threshold: JGB 30Y at 3.20%. Currently at 2.85% — eye open a crack.
The narrow westward strait. Oil, fertilizer, inflation — they all flow through it. Currently rationed. Pressure mounting.
One bare bulb. Charts pinned to every surface. The smoke never clears. Where every issue begins, 8 AM MYT.